Signal Check: Next-Gen Model Benchmarks and The NY RAISE Act
Coverage of lessw-blog
In a recent dispatch, lessw-blog analyzes the performance of Claude Opus 4.5 on the METR benchmark and details the implications of New York's newly signed AI safety legislation.
In a recent post, lessw-blog discusses the relentless pace of artificial intelligence development, providing a snapshot of the landscape that bridges technical capability evaluations with the evolving regulatory environment. Even amidst a holiday lull, the industry has seen significant movement regarding the validation of next-generation models and the enactment of state-level governance.
The Context
The AI sector is currently navigating a transition period. Developers are racing to release models that not only possess higher raw intelligence but can also maintain coherence over extended tasks-a capability critical for autonomous agents. Simultaneously, as federal regulation in the United States faces delays or hurdles, individual states are stepping in to fill the legislative vacuum. This creates a complex environment where technical breakthroughs and compliance requirements are evolving in parallel.
The Technical Signal: Saturation of Benchmarks
lessw-blog highlights emerging data regarding Claude Opus 4.5 and its performance on the METR (Model Evaluation and Threat Research) task length graph. The post notes that Opus 4.5 has demonstrated exceptional performance, effectively maxing out the current graph. This signals a pivotal moment where existing benchmarks may no longer be sufficient to measure the upper bounds of model capabilities. When a model trivializes a benchmark designed to test long-horizon task execution, it suggests that the industry is rapidly approaching a new tier of agentic reliability.
Furthermore, the post touches upon the competitive landscape, noting that while scores for Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.2-Codex are still pending, the existence of the latter has been confirmed. The specific mention of a "Codex" variant at the 5.2 version number implies a continued focus by OpenAI on specialized coding capabilities, likely aimed at entrenching their dominance in software development workflows.
The Regulatory Signal: The RAISE Act
On the policy front, lessw-blog reports that New York Governor Kathy Hochul has signed the RAISE Act. This legislation is described as a state-specific iteration of SB 53. While the post characterizes the act as only "marginally helpful" and notes it may not meet all desired safety specifications, its passage is significant. New York often serves as a bellwether for regulatory standards due to its economic weight. The enactment of the RAISE Act indicates that state governments are unwilling to wait for federal consensus, potentially leading to a fragmented regulatory landscape that AI companies will need to navigate carefully.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Finally, the post offers a forward-looking sentiment for 2026, summarized simply as "buckle up." This suggests that the incremental gains seen today are laying the groundwork for more disruptive, non-linear advancements in the near future. For observers and industry participants, the message is clear: the current stability is likely the calm before a period of intense transformation.
We recommend reading the full analysis to understand the specific nuances of the METR evaluations and the broader implications of the 2026 predictions.
Read the full post at lessw-blog
Key Takeaways
- Claude Opus 4.5 has demonstrated performance that saturates the current METR task length graph, indicating a need for more difficult benchmarks.
- The existence of GPT-5.2-Codex has been confirmed, signaling continued iteration on specialized coding models by OpenAI.
- New York has enacted the RAISE Act, a state-level AI safety law similar to SB 53, highlighting the trend of localized regulation.
- Predictions for 2026 suggest a highly volatile and transformative period for AI development is imminent.