Demographic Engineering: From Cash Incentives to Polygenic Screening
Coverage of lessw-blog
In a recent analysis, lessw-blog explores the intersection of aggressive fertility incentives and the emerging capabilities of polygenic embryo selection.
In a recent post, lessw-blog discusses the dual levers available to societies facing demographic collapse: economic force and technological intervention. Titled "Fertility Roundup #6: The Art of More Dakka," the analysis posits that declining birth rates are not an inevitability but a choice that can be influenced through substantial resource allocation and the adoption of advanced reproductive technologies.
The post opens with a macroeconomic argument regarding fertility incentives. The author suggests that while cultural shifts are complex, humans respond reliably to incentives involving money, time, and status. The analysis proposes that direct cash transfers-potentially as high as $300,000 per birth-could be net profitable for the state when accounting for the long-term economic contributions of the next generation. This section challenges the notion that fiscal austerity should limit demographic policy, arguing instead for massive investment.
However, the core technical signal of the post lies in its detailed examination of polygenic embryo testing (PGT-A). The author highlights the transition of IVF from a medical necessity for infertility to a platform for genetic optimization. Specifically, the post profiles Herasight and its polygenic predictors, such as CogPGT. The author notes claims that such screening could potentially boost offspring IQ by up to 9 points and significantly reduce risks for conditions like Alzheimer's and schizophrenia.
Crucially, the post addresses the regulatory landscape, noting that frameworks like HIPAA (in the US) and GDPR (in Europe) provide individuals with legal rights to their raw PGT-A data. This suggests a growing pathway for parents to bypass traditional medical gatekeepers and access advanced genetic insights directly. The author adopts an accelerationist stance, arguing that genetic selection is a moral positive that should be encouraged rather than restricted.
This publication is relevant for observers of the biotech and longevity sectors, as it outlines how consumer demand for "designer" traits is beginning to intersect with available medical data and legal rights.
Read the full post at LessWrong
Key Takeaways
- Economic Viability of Incentives: The post argues that high-value cash incentives for fertility (e.g., $300k) are economically rational investments for the state.
- Rise of Polygenic Screening: Services like Herasight are operationalizing polygenic scores for traits such as intelligence (CogPGT) and disease resistance.
- Data Sovereignty: Existing regulations like HIPAA and GDPR are identified as critical tools that allow parents to demand access to their embryo's genetic data.
- Pro-Selection Stance: The author advocates for the normalization and acceleration of genetic selection technologies.